In the aftermath of Trudeau’s resignation, can Canada’s new Prime Minister take on Trump and lead the Liberals to victory?
Trudeau’s resignation:
On the 6th of January 2025, Trudeau announced he was stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party and that he will resign as PM of Canada once a replacement leader is chosen. Trudeau has been PM since 2015 and has led the country through countless crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic.
His resignation comes after declining public support, with his party experiencing diminishing polling numbers and suffering losses in traditionally secure ridings, such as Toronto-St. Paul’s and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. His approval ratings have also taken a tumble, with his approval rating reaching a record low of 22% in December 2024.
This led to internal party dissent, with several caucus members calling for his resignation. Trudeau also faced a series of high-profile resignations, most notably that of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Additionally, Canada is currently facing significant economic issues, including rising inflation and a severe housing crisis. Canada's population experienced unprecedented growth due to the Trudeau administration's ambitious immigration targets, and in 2022, the population grew by 4.7 people for every housing unit completed the previous year, exacerbating housing shortages [1].
Trump’s Return to the White House - The Liberal Rebound:
Trump’s return to the White House seems to be rebounding Trudeau’s approvals in his final months as PM, however. Trudeau’s approval rating has jumped up by 12pp since December of last year, according to the most recent Angus Reid Poll [2].
The Liberal Party has also seen a large rebound, increasing their polling from 24% to 34%, narrowing the gap between them and the conservatives to 2pp.
[3] [4] Nanos Research Polls
President Trump's imposition of steep tariffs on Canadian imports and suggestions of annexing Canada as the 51st U.S. state have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism. These actions have been perceived as direct threats to Canada's sovereignty, leading to widespread public backlash and a rallying effect around the Liberal Party. This is because Trump is more antagonistic towards the Liberal Party as they are closer to the Democrats, plus he has frequently belittled Trudeau, calling him Governor, as if Canada is currently a US state.
Trudeau has struck back by reaffirming Canadian sovereignty, implementing counter-tariffs of 25% on $30 billion worth of US goods and encouraging Canadians to support domestic products/services.
Plus, the conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, initially capitalising on dissatisfaction with the Liberal government and pursuing a more populist campaign, now faces challenges of distancing himself from policies that he shared with Trump.
Additionally, the newly elected leader of the Liberal party, and Prime-Minister-to-be Mark Carney, supported these measures taken by Trudeau and has taken a very critical stance toward Trump.
Liberals Leadership Race:
The leadership race came to an end on March 9th, with the race mainly being contended between Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. In the end, however, it was not even close. Carney came out victorious with a whopping 86.9% of the members' vote, with Freeland trailing behind on only 7.3%. Thus, Mark Carney was elected the new leader of the Liberal Party and will be the new PM of Canada.
But who is Mark Carney?
Carney is a Canadian economist and banker who worked at Goldman Sachs before becoming Governor of the Bank of Canada between 2008 and 2013. As Governor, he was praised for steering Canada through the financial crisis. He cut interest rates aggressively, which helped Canada recover faster than most economies. Plus, the Canadian banking system remained stable, unlike other countries that faced collapses.
This success landed him a job as Governor of the Bank of England, making him the first foreign Governor in the Bank’s 319-year history. As Governor, he played a crucial role in trying to stabilise the UK economy after Brexit and prevent financial panic during the uncertain times.
His policies:
- ● Increase defense spending to 2% (NATO target) by 2030 and strengthen Canada’s arctic presence by creating two new arctic military bases
- ● Carbon Tax reform: replacing the existing scheme with a new incentive-based program rewarding “Green choices”
- ● Scrap capital gains tax increases and cut taxes for the middle classes
- ● Impose dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on the US
- ● Double the pace of new housing construction to tackle the Housing crisis
- ● Cap Immigration until it returns to pre-pandemic levels
Carney-mentum: Can Carney lead the liberals to victory despite all odds?
With Carney prompted as leader of the party, the Liberals poll consistently higher, lifting hopes that they may hold onto power in the elections later this year. Something which would have been considered unthinkable just 3 months ago.
According to a Pollara poll, the LPC would improve their result by 5pp and close the gap between them and the conservatives with Carney as leader [5]. Plus, due to Canada’s FPTP system and the way their “ridings” are drawn, if both the CPC and LPC tie at 37%, this would result in the Liberals returning as the largest party in the Canadian Parliament.
The question is, can Carney keep up the momentum?
Well, if Trump continues to act as deranged as he is and Carney manages to push back against him, defending Canadian sovereignty, I think he has a good chance to do so. Plus, if Carney can emphasise his successes as Governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, the Liberals may be able to improve their flailing image on the economy.
Sources:
[1]Canada will reduce immigration targets. Trudeau acknowledges his policy failed | AP News
[2]https://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker/
[3]https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Political-Package-2024-12-20-FR.pdf
[4]https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Political-Package-2025-02-28-FOR-RELEASE.pdf
[5]https://www.pollara.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Liberal-Leadership-March-2025.pdf