Rob Jetten is set to become the Netherlands' youngest and first openly gay PM after a shock victory for his party, the D66.
Why Were Early Snap Elections Called?
After the 2023 Dutch Elections, the PVV came out on top, winning 37 seats. Subsequently, a coalition was formed with the centre-right VVD, Peter Omtzigt’s NSC and the Populist Farmers party, the BBB. This government pledged to enforce the strictest asylum and migration policies in Dutch history, including tighter border controls and reduced refugee admissions.
However, after a turbulent two years, the Government collapsed on 3 June 2025 when Geert Wilders withdrew the PVV from the coalition. He accused his coalition partners of failing to deliver on hard-line migration measures, particularly proposals to “close the borders to asylum seekers” and use military forces to enforce them [1]. With the PVV’s exit, the remaining parties no longer held a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives, effectively ending the coalition’s ability to govern.
Election Results:
The campaign was dominated by debates over immigration, housing and the economy, with migration remaining the most polarising issue. Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) continued to campaign on a hard-line anti-immigration and Eurosceptic platform, promising to “enlist the army to patrol the border” and “send home all Syrian refugees” [2]. In contrast, the D66, under Rob Jetten, positioned itself as the centrist alternative: pro-European, socially liberal, and focused on practical governance after years of political turbulence [2]. In the end, the parties were neck and neck, with the D66 edging out the PVV to become the largest political force in the Netherlands. One of the most radical shifts, however, came from the New Social Contract (NSC, the centrist reformist party led by Pieter Omtzigt), which suffered a dramatic collapse, plunging from 20 seats in 2023 to none in these elections. This result underscored the volatility of the Dutch electorate and the fragility of new political movements built around a single figure.
Total seats after the election:https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
Who are the Winners and Losers in this Election?
Well, we can first take a look at this graph below to give initial evaluations, but I wil dig a little deeper into my conclusion for the main parties.
Change in Seats:https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
Winners: D66
The clear winner of the 2025 Dutch election was the D66. Under Rob Jetten’s leadership, the centrist-liberal party managed to capture the political middle ground, appealing to voters exhausted by ideological gridlock and the hard-right tone of recent years. D66’s focus on housing, education, and pragmatic governance paid off, elevating it to the largest party in the House of Representatives and giving it a leading role in post-election coalition talks. Rob Jetten’s social media presence, particularly on TikTok, also played a huge role in humanising him and getting his message across, particularly towards younger voters.
The Party was also successful in grabbing votes from left, right and centre. Plus, a majority of their voters in this election did not vote for them last time around:
Source:https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
Losers (at least for now): PVV
By contrast, the PVV emerged as one of the losers…at least for now. Although Geert Wilders maintained a strong base, his party’s decline from its 2023 high reflected the limits of his polarising style. Many analysts have noted that PVV’s lost support did not simply evaporate: some of it drifted to smaller nationalist and conservative movements such as the radical right Forum for Democracy (FvD). This shift is likely due to dissatisfaction from populist voters towards Wilders for not being able to deliver during his party’s time in Government. However, with a new grand coalition in sight, Wilders will likely be able to mobilise again, hence the ‘for now’.
Source:https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
Somewhat winners: VVD
The VVD, the long-dominant centre-right party, could be counted among the ‘somewhat winners'. Though no longer the largest party, it held its ground respectably after the collapse of the Schoof government. The VVD’s enduring organisational strength and experience in coalition politics leave it well-positioned to play a pivotal role in the next government’s formation.
Losers: PvdA and the left in general
On the other end of the spectrum, the Labour-Green alliance (PvdA-GroenLinks) and the broader left bloc suffered disappointing results. Despite consistent polling earlier in the year, the alliance failed to mobilise enough disaffected voters or capitalise on the government’s unpopularity. The fragmentation of the left continued to hinder its influence, as progressive voters split between D66, smaller green parties, and other leftist movements like the SP and PvdD. As a consequence of this uninspiring result, the PvdA leader, Frans Timmermans, has resigned, with him expected to be replaced by Jesse Klaver.
Winners: CDA
Among the surprise winners was the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), which staged a modest but meaningful recovery after years of decline. Its emphasis on community, family, and pragmatic governance resonated with moderate voters seeking stability, allowing the CDA to reassert itself as a credible partner in any centrist coalition.
This result comes at the expense of the New Social Contract’s (NSC) demise. Once heralded as a transformative centrist force, the party collapsed entirely, losing all its 20 seats. The result was a stunning reversal for Pieter Omtzigt, whose cautious leadership and reluctance to define clear policy positions alienated both reform-minded supporters and disillusioned conservatives.
We can see this clearly in the IPSOS-I&O Exit Poll data, where most of the CDA’s electorate in this election is coming from those who voted for the NSC in 2023:
Source:https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2025/
Likely Coalitions:
(1) D66-VVD-CDA-JA21: What the VVDers seem to want
One plausible scenario is a D66–VVD–CDA–JA21 coalition, which many within the VVD reportedly favour. It would hope to bring together economically liberal parties under a banner of pragmatic stability. However, it would require delicate compromises on social policy and migration, as JA21’s hardline stance could alienate D66’s progressive base. In short, such a coalition would need to walk a fine line, balancing policy coherence with political survival.
(2) D66-VVD-CDA-GLPVDA: What the D66 seems to want
Another, more ambitious option is a D66–VVD–CDA–PvdA/GreenLeft (GL–PvdA) coalition, which I would refer to as the grandest of grand coalitions. This government would combine parties on the right (VVD), centre (CDA and D66) and the left (GL-PvdA). This arrangement appears to reflect what many within D66 envision: a broad, centrist partnership aimed at stabilising Dutch politics and reducing polarisation. However, such a coalition may provide fertile ground for a PVV resurgence or even the emergence of a new right-populist movement.
Either way, it is fantastic to see a liberal movement swoop in and show that we can defeat right-wing populists with a positive message. If the D66 can form a government, this new government will be led by one of the most pro-European parties in Europe, sparking confidence in a government that will support further EU integration (particularly on defence) and an unequivocally pro-Ukraine policy. However, they will need to tread on thin ice and implement a more restrictive immigration policy than they would like if they wish to curb a resurgence of Wilders.
Sources
[1]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-far-right-leader-wilders-quits-government-coalition-nos-2025-06-03/
[2]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/21/dutch-election-key-players-and-main-issues-snap-poll