Poles to the Polls: Nawrocki Narrowly Defeats Trzaskowski

In a tight presidential race, Karol Nawrocki defeats Rafał Trzaskowski by a 51–49 margin, marking a major blow to the ruling Tusk government.

The Candidates: Trzaskowski vs Nawrocki

Rafal Trzaskowski was an MEP between 2009-2013 and has been serving as the Mayor of Warsaw since 2018. He is a member of the Civic Coalition (KO), which is a centrist pro-European party, currently in government after a parliamentary election victory in 2023. Trzaskowski ran for President 5 years ago, losing narrowly in the second round to incumbent Andrej Duda.

On Economic issues, Trzaskowski has promoted economic liberalisation, modernisation and a focus on climate change initiatives. On Foreign Policy, he has been unequivocal about Poland’s support of Ukraine and support for stronger European integration. On Social issues, he advocated for the broad legalisation of abortion and the introduction of same-sex civil unions. However, during the campaign, sensing competition from the right, he took a rightward turn on certain issues, particularly on immigration, where he pushed for stricter immigration controls and when he spoke out against same-sex adoption.

Trzaskowski held the momentum in the early moments of the campaign, being the favourite; however, over time, his support began to tumble as controversies surrounded the incumbent Tusk Government. The biggest controversy was around healthcare, when the KO-led government voted to decrease the health insurance contributions for entrepreneurs [1]. This move was attacked from the left (Razem and Zandberg) and from the right (Nawrocki), with Nawrocki utilising the government’s mistakes to make this campaign into a “referendum on Tusk”.

His opponent, and now president-elect, Karol Nawrocki, was a former professional boxer and historian. His candidacy was supported by the socially conservative nationalist party PiS. Nawrocki is listed as one of the people wanted by Russia on criminal charges related to his support for the removal of monuments commemorating the Red Army in Poland.

On Economic policy, Nawrocki emphasised the protection of Polish farmers and industries from unfair foreign competition. On Foreign Policy, Nawrocki is a strong Eurosceptic, speaking out against the EU’s Green New Deal and opposing Ukraine’s possible entry to NATO and the EU. He is also a strong Supporter of Trump, greater ties to the US and of Poland’s Atlanticist orientation. On Social issues, he is against abortion rights, advocates for Christian nationalist values and opposes the legalisation of same-sex civil unions.

During the campaign, Nawrocki accused the ruling coalition of “sexualising children” by promoting “Gender Ideology”, throwing a copy of “Gender Queer: A Memoir” into a paper shredder [2], handed Trzaskowski an LGBT flag during a presidential debate in a performative fashion to mock him [3] and attended a CPAC event.

Additionally, Nawrocki faced two scandals. Firstly, controversies around football hooliganism in his past emerged, where it was revealed that he participated in a 70 vs 70 fight football hooligans fight [4]. Furthermore, he was caught repeatedly using snus on air during presidential debates, raising concerns over a heavy nicotine addiction [5].

First Round Results:

[6] Source: TVN24 Graph of First Round Results

Following the first round, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki advanced to the second round; Trzaskowski represented the current governing party KO, and Nawrocki was supported by the Nationalist opposition party PiS. Furthermore, there was a strong showing from the far-right, with right-wing populist candidate Mentzen finishing in third with 15% and far-right candidate Braun behind in fourth with 6%. It was also a weak showing for the left in Poland, with pro-government left-wing candidate Biejat gaining 4% and anti-government left-wing candidate Zandberg receiving 5%.

Mentzen’s strong performance led both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski to fight for support from his voters in the second round, with both attending a public meeting with him, where Mentzen put forward eight points for each candidate to sign. Nawrocki signed all eight, whilst Trzaskowski only agreed to four, but did not agree to sign any of them [7]. But Trzaskowski nevertheless faced criticism from the left for meeting with and later going out for a drink with the far-right.

Second Round Results:

[8] Source: TVN24 Map of Second Round Results

Following the Second Round, Nawrocki narrowly won with 50.89% of the vote, relying on strong support in Poland's Southeastern Regions, which is a PiS stronghold and in rural areas across the country, which are more socially conservative and Eurosceptic. Trzaskowski, on the other hand, performed well in the Eastern parts of the country, which are traditionally more pro-European and in the big cities like Warsaw, Poznan and Krakow, which are more liberal.

[9] Source: TVN24 Graphs using Ipsos Exit Poll Data

Trzaskowski gathered the support of those who voted in the first round for candidates backed by coalition partners of KO, Holowina and Biejat. Plus, Zandberg voters in the end broke for Trzaskowski, though quite a few may have remained at home, due to their discontent with the government.

Meanwhile, Nawrocki gained support from the broader far-right, winning by and large the support of Mentzen and Braun first-round voters. Though again, many Mentzen and Braun voters remained home for the second round, which is what made the race extremely close, enough voters broke in the end to allow Nawrocki to gain a path to victory.

Exit Poll: Younger voters broke for the Right

In the first round, most interesting is the 18-29 vote, where far-right Mentzen comes out on top, with left-wing populist Zandberg coming in second, showcasing how the youth in Poland has moved to the fringes of both ideological poles.

[10] Ipsos First Round Exit Poll Data

In the second round, we witness much less age variation, with the gap between both candidates being relatively equally small amongst all age groups. Particularly interesting is that Nawrocki won voters between the ages of 18-29, a group which Trzaskowski 5 years ago won with 64%. Meanwhile, those aged 60+ this time narrowly voted for the PiS candidates with 51%, compared to just 5 years ago, where 63% voted for Duda.

[10] Ipsos Second Round Exit Poll Data

Sources:

[1]https://oko.press/trzaskowski-skladka-zdrowotna

[2]https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/karol-nawrocki-niszczy-komiks-muzeum-odpowiada-chcemy-stac-za-czlowiekiem/0php2bw

[3]https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31950843,rafal-trzaskowski-przed-pierwsza-tura-skrecal-w-prawo-aktywisci.html

[4]https://przegladsportowy.onet.pl/ofsajd/burza-wokol-karola-nawrockiego-oto-co-zarzucil-mu-slawomir-mentzen/m82ylg9

[5]https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/11354/artykul/3528928,nawrocki-caught-repeatedly-using-nicotine-during-live-tv-debates-as-new-evidence-emerges

[6]https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2025/wyniki-i-tury

[7]https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/Mentzen-grillowal-Trzaskowskiego-Kandydat-przeciwko-nowym-podatkom-i-za-likwidacja-TVP-Info-8948191.html

[8]https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2025/wyniki-ii-tury

[9]https://tvn24.pl/polska/wyniki-wyborow-prezydenckich-2025-jak-glosowali-polacy-interaktywne-grafiki-i-wykresy-st8486765

[10]https://tvn24.pl/polska/wybory-prezydenckie-2025-wyniki-jak-glosowali-polacy-st8464566