Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling EU funds and ban from public office has rocked French politics, killing her 2027 presidential ambitions and pushing Jordan Bardella into the spotlight as the new frontrunner for the presidency.
Marine Le Pen’s Conviction
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN), has been convicted of embezzling European funds. The Court found that she and 24 other party officials misused over €4 million intended for parliamentary assistants, diverting these funds to pay party employees who performed little to no work related to EU affairs.
As a result of the conviction, Le Pen has received a four-year prison sentence, with two years to be served under electronic surveillance and two years suspended. Additionally, she was banned from holding public office for five years, meaning that she will be unable to run for president in the 2027 presidential election. This is a massive blow to her and her party, as she was the frontrunner in this election, topping the most recent Ifop opinion poll. [1]
This is not the first time a prominent political figure in France has faced conviction. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy, for instance, was found guilty of attempting to bribe a judge by offering a prestigious position in exchange for information on a separate case. He was later convicted in the "Bygmalion Affair" for exceeding campaign spending limits during the 2012 presidential elections. Similarly, Jacques Chirac, another former President, was convicted for arranging jobs at Paris City Hall for his close associates while serving as the city's mayor.
Responses to the court's findings:
Reactions in France
Le Pen has announced that she intends to appeal the verdict, asserting that the ruling is politically motivated and labelling the verdict as a “democratic scandal” [2]. Here we see some echoes of the rhetoric of Trump after he was found guilty of all 34 charges in his hush money trial.
Additionally, the National Rally has condemned the ruling as an attack on democracy and has called for protests and peaceful mobilisation of supporters in response, initiating a petition to contest what they perceived as judicial overreach [3]. Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protege and current RN President, has criticised the judiciary’s decision by labelling it as the work of “red judges” and arguing that this is a “tyranny of the judiciary” [4].
On the other hand, President Emmanuel Macron has emphasised the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law in France. He stated that “the law is the same for everyone” and that Le Pen has been justly convicted of a crime, and she will face the consequences as a result [5].
Reaction from Far-Right leaders worldwide:
Nationalist and far-right leaders rushed to defend Le Pen on social media and in media interviews. The most prominent of which was Viktor Orban, who tweeted “Je Suis Marine” on X (formerly Twitter) and expressed solidarity with Le Pen, criticising the verdict and arguing it undermines democracy. Nothing like two politicians who steal European Funds showing solidarity!
Convicted Felon Donald Trump labelled the ruling a “very big deal” and suggested there was political influence in the judiciary’s decision [6]. Meanwhile, Elon Musk stated, “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents” [7]. Additionally, other far-right politicians drew parallels between Le Pen’s arrest to that of Donald Trump’s and argued that the “EU dictatorship” had come after Georgescu in Romania, the AfD in Germany and now Le Pen was next.
Finally, even Vladimir Putin came to Le Pen’s defence, condemning the ruling, viewing it as a politically motivated attack that violated democratic norms [8].
Who will replace Le Pen as the RN’s presidential candidate?
Since the ruling means that Le Pen is barred from running, the RN will likely run Jordan Bardella as its candidate for the Presidential Elections. Now, while he is currently silent about this prospect and pushing for an appeal to the verdict, this is only a show of loyalty to the woman who brought him up the ranks of the party.
Bardella is a particularly interesting figure in French Politics, he joined the RN (back then it was called the Front National) at the age of 16, later becoming the director of the party’s youth wing. At just 23, he led the RN at the European Parliamentary elections in 2019 and by 2022 he succeeded Le Pen as President of the RN. How has Bardella managed to climb the party ranks this fast? Well, there are several reasons, but two main ones are worth mentioning.
Firstly, he is perceived as a fresh image and has been instrumental in modernising the party’s image, distancing it from historically controversial associations by focusing on appealing to a broader electorate. Plus, this change in leadership offers a complete makeover of the party, one which was initiated by Le Pen expelling her father from the party and one which breaks away from the Le Pen “dynasty” which has dominated the party.
Secondly, he has been effective in using social media to enhance visibility and relate to younger audiences. His TikTok account for example has 2 million followers and he regularly posts on there to connect with voters. This was mirrored by the RN’s strong showing among younger voters in the French Legislative elections in 2024, where the RN came in second with voters aged 18-24 (33%) and 25-34 (32%) [9]. This strong showing was also seen among young voters in the 2024 EU parliament elections, where the RN came second with voters aged 18-24 (26%) and even won voters aged 25-34 (30%) [10].
This may be why Bardella fares well in opinion polling for the presidential elections. In the most recent Harris Interactive opinion poll (after the court verdict on Le Pens ineligibility), Jordan comes out on top with 36%, ahead of the most likely candidate of the Macronist coalition, Edouard Phillippe, by 11pp [11]. So while Le Pen may be barred from running in 2027, it seems that the National Rally still has an increasingly large chance of grasping the presidency.
Sources
[1]https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/121520-Resultats-Intention-de-Vote-Presidentielle-1.pdf
[2]https://apnews.com/article/france-marine-le-pen-verdict-presidential-election-348a9dad6f207c77eaa80c6ace78d516
[3]https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/31/france-marine-le-pen-embezzlement-verdict-europe-news-live/
[4]https://www.politico.eu/article/jordan-bardella-fight-marine-le-pen-no-comment-replacing-leader-france-national-rally/
[5]https://rmc.bfmtv.com/actualites/politique/marine-le-pen-condamnee-une-justice-independante-et-equivalente-pour-tout-le-monde-dit-macron_AV-202504020505.html
[6]https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-le-pens-conviction-france-is-very-big-deal-2025-03-31/
[7]https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-slam-marine-le-pen-guilty-verdict/
[8]https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/31/kremlin-condemns-french-court-ruling-barring-le-pen-from-office-a88545
[9]https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-06/ipsos-talan-sociologie-electorats-legislatives-30-juin-rapport-complet.pdf
[10]https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-06/Ipsos-Sociologie-des-e%CC%81lectorats-9-Juin-20h30.pdf
[11]https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/info-rtl-presidentielle-2027-jordan-bardella-largement-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote-pour-le-1er-tour-7900489311