German Election Results

The Fall of the Traffic Light Coalition, the Rise of the AfD, and the CDU's Path to Power: what next for the largest country in the EU?

Traffic-Light Coalition Assessed

Germany headed to the polls as the “Traffic light coalition” between the SPD, Greens, and FDP collapsed after the FDP left due to disagreements over the budget in November 2024.

The government did have its share of successes, for example, increasing the minimum wage, ridding Germany of its dependence on Russian gas and introducing a new cheap monthly travel pass.

However, for the most part, the coalition was turbulent, with frequent infighting and internal disputes, particularly between PM Scholz and then Finance Minister Lindner from the FDP. Additionally, economic instability, sluggish growth, a cost of living crisis and failure to curb anxieties over high immigration led to its falling popularity.

As a result, all opposition parties have had improved results, while all government parties have collapsed.

Results and Germany’s Right-Turn

The biggest drop in support is seen by the SPD (-9.3pp), who, as the leading party of the coalition, bore most of the Blame. Additionally, the FDP also saw a massive drop in support (-7.1pp), dropping out of the Bundestag as their right-leaning voters grew dissatisfied over their coalition with the left-leaning parties. Additionally, the Greens dropped in support (-3.1pp), with their younger voter base leaving the party for the left-wing opposition Linke, who saw a boost in the polls (+3.9pp).

On the opposing side, the CDU/CSU increased their vote share by 4.3pp, returning as the largest party in Germany. They capitalised on immigration concerns with a sharp turn to the right, even proposing a Migration Bill in the Bundestag, which was backed by the AfD. Additionally, their strong support for Ukraine and their pro-European stance managed to draw in more moderate voters from the Traffic-light coalition.

However, whilst the CDU/CSU came out on top, the AfD saw the biggest growth in support (+10.4pp), almost doubling their respective result from 2021 by capitalising on immigration concerns. While the party was threatened with being banned due to extremism earlier this year, they have managed to garner their largest share of the vote in the history of the party’s existence.

Additionally, the AfD has been accused of having financial ties to Russia, which is evident in their stance against Ukraine and opposition to the EU. Plus, the party during the campaign got an endorsement from Elon Musk, who spoke at their party conference, calling for Germans “not to be ashamed of their past” and that “There is too much focus on past guilt, and we need to move beyond that.”

Record High Turnout:

There was a record-high turnout in these elections at 82.5%, the highest turnout since unification in 1990. Turnout increased by 6.1pp since 2021, with massive upticks in turnout particularly in East Germany, where the AfD was able to mobilise non-voters.

Age: German Youth Swings to the Extremes

A massive gap is seen between older and younger voters.

Older voters, particularly the 60+ age groups, hold strong support for the status-quo parties (CDU/CSU and SPD), with the CDU winning all groups aged 45 and over.

Middle-aged voters between the ages of 25 and 44 favour the AfD, who managed to win those age groups, the first time the AfD has managed to do so.

Younger voters aged 18-24, however, turned to the extremes. In 2021, the Greens came out on top with 23%, whilst the FDP came in second with 21%, showcasing a liberal youth. However, this time around, the FDP has collapsed by 16pp and the Greens by 13pp.

Meanwhile, a massive surge in support for both the far-left Linke (up by 17pp) and the far-right AfD (up by 14pp). Linke, by utilising social media (particularly TikTok), has managed to win the 18-24 age group by promising a billionaires' tax, a reform of the debt brake, and an increase in the minimum wage. The AfD also utilised social media, particularly targeting young men, allowing it to come in 2nd with this age group.

Gender Divide Among the Youth:

The Gender divide is less pronounced in Germany as a whole; however, looking deeper into the 18-24 group, we see a massive divide between young women and young men. Young men favour the AfD and right-leaning parties in general, whilst young women overwhelmingly support Linke and left-leaning parties in general.

Education: Highly Educated Votes Favour the Left

While the CDU/CSU won all groups, those with a lower level of education favoured the CDU/CSU and AfD, while those with a higher education favoured parties left of centre, with a particularly good result for the Greens.

Mapping out the election: The Ever-Clear East and West Divide

The East-West divide remains more visible than ever in Germany, with the AfD coming out on top in the East, whilst the CDU/CSU dominated in the West.

Looking at the numbers, the AfD comes out on top with 32% in the East, with Linke and BSW also overperforming in the region. The East is much poorer based on income compared to the West, explaining why populist parties perform much better there. Additionally, the ageing population and remains of Soviet nostalgia explain the strong performance of the pro-Russian parties AfD and BSW.

In the West, the CDU comes out on top, performing well all around, whilst the SPD and Green win some constituencies in the larger cities. Furthermore, the CSU (the sister party of the CDU) came out on top once again in Bavaria, staying the largest party in the region consistently since 1957. The West of Germany is richer based on Income, more pro-Western and more socially liberal than the East, explaining the stronger performance of the status-quo parties. However, the AfD has still managed to come out with a record-high result here in these elections.

Meanwhile, Die Linke, on the brink of death as a political force last year polling under the 5% threshold consistently, managed to come out on top in Berlin, a massive win for the party.

Coalition building

As a result of the FDP and BSW dropping below the threshold, the SPD and the CDU/CSU have enough seats to form a Groko coalition (or Grand Coalition) with the SPD. This is not as unprecedented as it seems, with Angela Merkel governing with a Groko between 2005-2009 and 2013-2021.

However, the difference this time is that the CDU/CSU will be led by Merz, a politician who is the polar opposite of Merkel.

Merkel was a conservative with a small c, focusing on creating moderate majorities, whilst Merz is much more reactive and has shifted the party in a much more unapologetically conservative direction, particularly on Immigration. The recent Migration Bill even led to Merkel stepping in and criticising Merz for “co-operating with the far-right”. Merz responded by criticising Merkel’s legacy on the migration crisis and arguing that her open-door immigration policy was the reason for the AfD’s rise.

However, with Trump in the White House and the war in Ukraine continuing to affect the security of Europe, Merz may be more open to cooperating with the SPD to guarantee that Germany’s and Europe’s interests are defended.

What does this mean for Germany?

On defence and Foreign policy, Merz has pushed further than Scholz in support of Ukraine and has argued for greater European unity. Just after election night, he called for more European defence cooperation, arguing that America under Trump may no longer be a reliable ally and “may not uphold NATO’s mutual defence commitment”.

On the economy, the CDU/CSU and SPD may clash, but they have recently agreed on reforming the debt brake. These reforms will see a massive change in German fiscal policy:

• ● Defence spending above 1% of GDP will be exempt from the debt brake
• ● Introduction of a 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure and military
• ● Easing of the debt brake for German states, who currently cannot run structural deficits at all

However, these reforms of the debt brake must be pushed in the current Bundestag before the new Bundestag goes into session. This is because the SPD-CDU-Greens have a constitutional majority (2/3rds majority) in the current Bundestag, whereas they will lose this majority in the new Bundestag and will thus have to rely on Die Linke for these reforms. Therefore, we expect to see a massive change in German economic policy even before the new parliament begins its term. But it is good to see the status quo in Germany finally push for massive change.

Finally, the big question that this coalition will have to address is the rise of the AfD. One way the CDU/CSU will try to do this is by pursuing stricter immigration policies: enforcing stricter border rejections, accelerating asylum repatriations and cracking down on “radical Islamist” mosques. While the SPD is more liberal on immigration, we can expect them to back quite a few of these policies as (1) the CDU have a mandate to carry them out and (2) it may help curb migration anxieties. Plus, both the CDU and SPD have called for increased investment in infrastructure (particularly in the East, where the AfD did best) to try to curb the low growth, increase incomes, and improve employment rates in that region.

[1] Source:Bundestagswahl 2025 - Ergebnisse und Analysedaten | tagesschau.de