Georgescu Barred From Running

The far-right candidate for the Romanian presidential elections, Calin Georgescu, has been blocked from running after a decision by the Central Electoral Bureau.

Why was this decision taken?

Following a 10-4 vote, the country’s Central Electoral Bureau announced on Sunday that it was disqualifying Călin Georgescu’s candidacy due to his “failure to comply with electoral regulations.”

The decision was made just over a week after Romanian prosecutors launched a criminal investigation against Georgescu, alleging offenses of extremism, attempting to undermine the constitutional order and forming a fascist organisation.

Last month, as he exited the courthouse after being questioned, Georgescu made a gesture that many perceived as a Nazi salute toward his supporters outside. Georgescu has said he will appeal this decision, and it will be taken to the country’s constitutional court, whose ruling will then be legally binding.

Presidential Election Results 2024:

Georgescu topped the poll in the election last year, defying all odds as he was polling consistently under 10% for most of the campaign. He came first with 22.9%, with the liberal anti-corruption candidate Lasconi close behind.

What was even more surprising was the incredibly low results for the status-quo parties' candidates Cuica and Coilacu. Ciolacu was expected to breeze past the first round and then win comfortably in the second round against either Lasconi or Georgescu. However, in the end, Ciolacu dropped in third, showcasing a huge wave of anti-establishmentarianism in Romania.

Who are Georgescu’s voters?

Georgescu performed very well amongst Romanians living abroad, winning 43% of voters outside the mainland. This is incredibly surprising, as usually, the diaspora in countries in Eastern Europe are much more liberal and pro-European. For example, in Bulgaria, PPDB performed better with Bulgarians abroad and in Moldova, Maia Sandu won her election due to her strong support from the Moldovan diaspora.

[1] Georgescu’s votes by age

According to INCSOP data, Georgescu performed better amongst younger voters; he won 31% of 18-24-year-olds and 26% of 25-34-year-olds, whilst only obtaining 8% of 65+ voters.

This may be because older voters prefer the status-quo parties PSD and PNL, whilst younger voters are more inclined to support anti-establishment and anti-corruption candidates.

[1] Georgescu’s votes by region

Georgescu also had much higher support in small towns and rural areas compared to Bucharest and bigger cities. He won 22% of rural voters and 23% of small town voters, whilst only winning 13% of voters in Bucharest. His populist and social-conservative rhetoric has done much better in attracting people from smaller cities, who feel left behind by the status-quo parties.

Meanwhile, in Bucharest and bigger cities like Cluj and Brasov, they preferred the liberal candidate Lasconi, who came out on top there.

[1] Georgescu’s voters by education level

Georgescu also performed much better with those that had secondary or lower education, but only received 12% support from people with higher education.

His views and rise to prominence:

Gerogescu pushed Romanian nationalism, anti-establishment rhetoric and socially conservative views, particularly rhetoric against LGBT people and ethnic minorities. He also focused his campaign on “peace”, arguing for Romania to stop supporting Ukraine and sending weapons, as he believed that would drag the country into the war. He praised Putin as “a man who loves his country” and attacked feminism, saying that women cannot be leaders. His candidacy was also supported by JD Vance and Elon Musk, who tweeted in support of the candidate after news broke out that he would be barred from running.

Georgescu rose to prominence due to his popularity on TikTok, where his account has millions of likes and thousands of followers. This is seen by his large support among young people, particularly young men. This support was his driving force in this campaign, and he would release podcast-style videos in which he shared his policies and plans if he assumed the office of president. He also ran a very unconventional campaign, having no backing from a political party or a campaign HQ. [2]

This raised suspicion in the Central Electoral Bureau, which argued that this support was manufactured. They later discovered that over 800 TikTok accounts linked to Russian interests had supported him, leading to the annulment of the election results. [3]

New elections in May, what next?

As a result of the ban, several protests erupted outside the election bureau, with the protesters in support of Georgescu turning violent and arguing that this was an attack on democracy. Additionally, support for Georgescu has skyrocketed after the ban, with his polling number reaching 38%. [4]

Georgescu has contested the ban and will appeal the decision by the bureau, so we will see where that leads. But, if the ban is upheld by the countries’ highest court, the two far-right parties that have backed Georgescu’s run, the AUR and the Party of the Young (POT), may have to put forward a new candidate for the presidency, likely George Simion (leader of the AUR).

Plus, a new contender emerges, Nicușor Dan. He is the current mayor of Bucharest and has been topping the most recent polls which exclude Georgescu. This is due to his focus on fighting corruption and his broad appeal with both liberals and conservatives.

Sources:

[1]Noi date despre profilul votanților lui Călin Georgescu. 13% dintre alegătorii din București l-au ales, potrivit sondajului INSCOP | Digi24

[2] https://edmo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Report-on-Romanian-elections.pdf

[3]Who is Calin Georgescu? Right Wing 'TikTok Star' Banned From Romania's Presidential Race, Backed by Musk and Vance | IBTimes UK

[4]Sondaj Atlasintel publicat de Nicușor Dan: Călin Georgescu - 38,4%, Nicușor Dan - 25,4%, Crin Antonescu - 15,8% în primul tur / Cum s-ar împărți voturile într-un tur doi cu Georgescu și Dan