Andrej Babiš returns to power after a strong showing for his ANO party in the Czech elections, but this time he is constrained both by a pro-EU president and a turbulent coalition with two scandal-ridden right-wing populist parties.
Whatnext after the elections in October?
ANO came out on top with 34.5% of the vote, an increase of 7pp from the previous election. Andrej Babiš benefited from widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing government, which had recorded the lowest approval rating since 2013 (32%) [1]. ANO’s campaign combined Euroscepticism with criticism of aid to Ukraine, while focusing heavily on inflation and rising energy costs. As a result, ANO drew support away from other populist movements such as Stačilo, Přísaha, and even SPD. Both Stačilo and Přísaha fell below the 4% parliamentary threshold, while SPD’s vote share dropped by 2pp compared to the last election, finishing on 8% despite polling at around 13% before election day [2].
The Motorists (AUTO), on the other hand, achieved electoral success and will likely be part of the next Babiš government, gaining parliamentary representation for the first time. The Motorists campaigned on a right-wing populist, anti-green agenda, centred around defending drivers’ rights and opposing what they call the “Green Extremism” [3]. Led by businessman and influencer Filip Turek, an admirer of Donald Trump, the party mixed Euroscepticism, nationalism, and anti-elite rhetoric to appeal to younger male voters.
However, Turek became embroiled in a scandal after Deník N uncovered racist, sexist, and homophobic posts he had tried to delete, including slurs against Barack Obama and the mocking of a Romani attack victim, which temporarily derailed coalition talks with Babiš’s ANO [4]. But, it seems in the end, Babiš’s thirst to regain power will persevere, and a coalition agreement will be signed between ANO, AUTO and the SPD on the 3rd November [5].
Now to turn to the previous governing parties: SPOLU, STAN and the Pirates (until October 2024 [6]). SPOLU dropped 4pp and, as a result, Petr Fiala resigned as leader of the ODS. This comes as no shock since the former government became deeply unpopular due to frustration with austerity measures, slow economic growth and rising energy costs, as well as a perception that it had been more focused on foreign policy than on domestic concerns. Many voters felt disconnected from Fiala’s technocratic style, which contrasted sharply with Babiš’s populist messaging.
Since Fiala’s resignation, attention has turned to several possible successors within ODS. Transport Minister Martin Kupka and South Bohemian Governor Martin Kuba are seen as the leading contenders, both representing more pragmatic, moderate wings of the party, while Defence Minister Jana Černochová has also been mentioned as a potential outsider candidate [7]. However, neither commands Fiala’s cross-coalition influence, making SPOLU’s future cohesion uncertain.
Finally, STAN, while maintaining a small but steady base, struggled to differentiate itself from the larger coalition partners and received only 11% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Pirates, who left government in October 2024, tried to rebuild their identity as a progressive, pro-transparency force, allowing them to make breakthroughs with younger voters.
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Results:https://www.volby.cz/app/ps2025/en/home
Now, while ANO’s victory signals alarm bells in Brussels and for Ukraine, President Petr Pavel is likely to act as an important check on Andrej Babiš’s new government. A former NATO general and firm supporter of the EU and Ukraine, Pavel represents a markedly different vision of the Czech Republic’s international role than Babiš’s more nationalist and Eurosceptic stance. Throughout his presidency, Pavel has consistently defended Ukraine’s sovereignty, supported continued military and humanitarian aid, and argued for stronger alignment with NATO and the European Union. This puts him in conflict with Babiš, whose rhetoric during the campaign leaned toward “Czech-first” populism and scepticism about EU climate and defence policies.
While the Czech presidency is largely ceremonial, Pavel does have some control over foreign policy appointments, the ability to veto legislation and his moral authority in public debate mean he can significantly influence the tone of Czech diplomacy. Plus, his popularity at home (51% approval [8]) and credibility abroad could also help constrain any sharp turn away from Western alignment, ensuring that even under Babiš, Prague remains firmly anchored in the pro-EU and pro-Ukraine camp.
A closer look at the voters:
Voters abroad:
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Results:https://www.volby.cz/app/ps2025/en/home
Among Czechs voting abroad, the results looked very different from those at home. SPOLU dominated with 39.3%, followed by the Pirates at 28.2%, both performing strongly among the more liberal, pro-EU diaspora. ANO received only 4%, while both SPD and AUTO managed only ~2%, showing that nationalist, anti-green messages had little traction among voters living outside the country. These results highlight the stark contrast between the more progressive preferences of Czechs abroad and the populist leanings of much of the domestic electorate.
Difference by Region of the Country:
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Results:https://www.volby.cz/app/ps2025/en/home
The divide between Prague and the rest of the country was stark in the 2025 election. In the capital, SPOLU led comfortably with 34%, followed by ANO on 19.8% and the Pirates on 16.9%, reflecting Prague’s more liberal, pro-EU and urban electorate. STAN also performed well with 13.4%, while populist and far-right parties such as SPD and AUTO (both 5.2%) struggled to gain traction.
Outside Prague, however, ANO dominated with 36.4%, strengthening its hold on rural and small-town voters. Support for SPOLU, STAN and the Pirates was much lower, while right-wing populist parties' support was comparatively higher, with the SPD at 8.1% and AUTO at 7%. The rural electorate is notably older, and ANO’s focus on pensions, welfare, and economic security resonated strongly with pensioners, who remain a key pillar of its voter base. This clear urban–rural divide highlights how Prague continues to favour liberal and western-oriented parties, while much of the rest of Czechia leans toward populist and nationalist movements.
Vote by Demographics (Based on STEM’s Pre-Election Model):
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Source (Model from 1 month before the election adjusted with the final election results):https://www.stem.cz/en/electoral-tendencies-of-the-czech-public-august-2025-weekly-election-model-week-34/
The demographic breakdown reveals clear divides by both age and education. Among older voters aged 60 and over, ANO was by far the most popular party, securing 38% support (its strongest demographic), while SPOLU followed at just 22%. This reflects ANO’s dominance among pensioners, who respond strongly to its promises around pensions and its more socially conservative stances. In contrast, younger voters were far more likely to support the pro-Western parties. While support between ANO and SPOLU was equal for those aged 18-29, both the Pirates and STAN performed much stronger, showcasing the more liberal and pro-European orientation of younger voters. One other thing to note, however, is that AUTO had stronger success among younger voters than older voters, showing they must have had some success in attracting younger male voters, continuing this global trend of ‘toxic masculinity’: framing political strength and defiance as expressions of traditional manhood.
Educational background also shaped the results. Voters without a high school diploma overwhelmingly backed ANO (42%), underscoring the party’s appeal among lower-income and less-educated groups. Those with a high school diploma were more evenly split between ANO (28%) and SPOLU (21%), while university-educated voters clearly favoured SPOLU (35%) and the Pirates (16%), with ANO trailing at 20%. This pattern highlights the party’s class and educational divide: ANO remains strongest among older, working-class, and less-educated voters, while younger and more educated Czechs gravitate toward liberal and pro-EU parties such as SPOLU and the Pirates.
SOURCES:
[1]https://www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/poll-fiala-s-government-rated-worst-since-2013
[2]https://www.median.eu/cs/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Volby_PS_2025_09_v02VD.pdf
[3]https://motoristesobe.cz/program2025
[4]https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/10/20/filip-turek-the-czech-trumpist-motorist-who-flirts-with-nazi-symbols_6746613_4.html
[5]https://www.reuters.com/world/czech-election-winner-babis-says-his-party-will-sign-coalition-agreement-nov-3-2025-10-29/
[6]https://www.euractiv.com/news/pirates-quits-czech-government-triggering-cabinet-reshuffle-and-conservative-shift/
[7]https://cnn.iprima.cz/kdo-bude-novym-sefem-ods-bookmakeri-favorizuji-kupku-dve-zeny-i-prekvapive-jmeno-489562
[8]https://english.radio.cz/stem-trust-president-pavel-remains-stable-51-czechs-trust-him-8849769